David A. Tanzer, August 2020, in unit Epidemic Models 2.
In Epidemic Models 1, we introduced compartmental models, leading to the SEIR model, which is used for epidemics like Covid. The discussion there, however, was structural and qualitative. In this unit, we take the next step with these models, which is to analyze their dynamics – this will account for the rates at which the epidemic “moves” individuals from one compartment to another. At the end we will reach the rate equations, which are a system of differential equations that can be used to model and simulate the time evolution of the epidemic. That math will come at the very end, and we’ll build up to it.